Thursday, March 29, 2007

Bear

"Financial stocks are not performing well and this is usually a bad indicator for the market". Marc Faber has said that. And when we have this kind of figures: A measure of financial shares has retreated 5.9 percent since Feb. 20. We are in a bear market.

Rising oil prices, real estate burst and "war on terror" never ending story, we will se S&P in a bad shape.


Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Recession, definitely

Master Greenspan has warned recently, about the incoming recession.

King Buffett has mentioned several times, some dirty pieces of the American economy: twin deficits, too much dependence on consumer spending, and a public budget unmanageable.

Right now, Bernanke says something that we think is not a doubt, it is real: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook have increased somewhat recently.

We prefer to listen to Mr. Greenspan and to Mr. Buffett.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Recession


The real estate bubble will be removed during 2007, but in the meantime, volatility will be hurting stocks.

Lucent comeback

Bell Labs have suffered an enormous catastrophic blowing after 2000. Recently, Patricia Russo have made some work on cost cutting and provided the sale of Lucent to the French company Alcatel. Right now, Alcatel - Lucent is trying to come from the ashes.

This is good news: Verizon Wireless said it has awarded Alcatel-Lucent a three-year network expansion contract worth an expected $6 billion. Under the agreement, Alcatel-Lucent will supply a range of network equipment, software and services to support Verizon's network expansion.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Signs to buy

We have learned from Buffett that we start to buy, sound businesses, in tough times.

Definitely, we are in a rocky surface. Look to this: The biggest drop in home building in 15 years weighed on growth last quarter. And this: Residential construction declined in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 19.1 percent, the most since 1991, after an 18.7 percent decrease the previous quarter, Commerce estimated last month. The drop subtracted 1.16 percentage points from GDP.

But: Purchases rose to an annual pace of 990,000, up 5.7 percent from January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Commerce Department report tomorrow.

It is time to buy some selected stocks. In the opposite side of Buffett, we enjoy Internet stocks, because the net is the future. The challenge is to find the best and the next leaders.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Recession?

Master Greenspan has warned. Mortgages and real estate are the main sources of recession. But America is living also an innovation crisis. Motorola is in turmoil. Dell is stuck in the mud. Automakers are near bankruptcy. What is happening to America?

The White House is in a permanent crisis of credibility. Iraq and Afghanistan are on fire. The Defense Budget is unsustainable.

Will Obama be the new face of America? Or America is facing the decline of the empire?

Sunday, March 18, 2007

FED: rethinking the rates?

Mortgages, real estate, twin deficits and "war on terror" budget, are damaging US economy.

Master Greenspan has warned, about a possible recession. Bernanke have dismissed the Greenspan thinking without clear evidence.

Now, the market is waiting for rate cuts: Options traders are starting to say the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the housing slump threatens the economy's growth.

We always believe in Market. After this, Bernanke will be in a turmoil: to tackle some inflation threat, or to put some gas on the economy.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Another accounting problem

This is a nightmare to the shareholders. We do not understand the systematic accounting problems facing Corporate America, after Enron, Adelphia, and among others, Worldcom.

This time is the GM juggernaut: General Motors warned investors Thursday that its internal controls over financial reporting are ineffective and could make it difficult for automaker to execute its business plan.

One word: unacceptable. SELL.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Fool's paranoia

The Motley Fool, by Seth Jayson, insisted today in their attack on Altair. Now, about shipping or not shipping 4 battery packs!?... It is not persecution anymore: it seems... paranoia!...

Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Privaty Equity, again

The pace of activity around a possible sale of DaimlerChrysler AG'S Chrysler Group is accelerating, after several potential buyers met with management before presenting preliminary offers by the end of the month, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The news are not new. Daimler - Chrysler have decided to put Chrysler on sale. The news are the list of potential buyers: The interested private-equity firms include Cerberus Capital Management LLC and a group led by Blackstone Group and Centerbridge Partners LP.

Friday, March 9, 2007

The Fools, Altair and the... SEC

It's very hard for a company to keep advancing its operations and market evolution over a continued stream of fire as Altair Nanotechnologies is experiencing from The Motley Fool, Seth Jayson, Jack Uldrich and peers.

In the past weeks, Altair shares rose to a level consistent with its results and contracts. But, soon - here and here and here, three articles on three days?!... - The Motley Fool has attacked, as usually, to decrease Altair's momentum...

Now, the question has changed. It's not anymore "why?" or "for whom?" - A123 Systems? - , but "until when?". Until when will the SEC authorize this kind of systematic campaign over a company?...

Quousque tandem, Catilina, abutere patientia nostra?


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies.

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Boston: a revolution?


Boston Scientific shares decreased 3.4%, today.

But, today the market recuperated some strength. Then, why Boston decreased so much?

The reason: a significant change in Board Governance.

Take the revolution in Boston:
First: (Boston Scientific) will require its CEO to own at least 240,000 shares. Executive vice presidents must own a minimum of 75,000 shares and senior vice presidents must obtain at least 20,000 shares.
Second: Shares will be worth five times the base salary of the CEO, three times the executive vice presidents' salary and one times the base salary of senior vice presidents.
Third: Executives must reach stock ownership levels within five years from the date the guidelines were adopted or the date they became an executive officer -- whichever one is later.
Forth: The new standard mandates that any director nominee not elected by a majority of votes cast to submit a resignation letter after the shareholder vote. The company's governance committee will then either recommend or reject the letter.
Fifth: The board recommends phasing in annual elections of directors and shareholder approval of an amendment that require directors to be elected annually for a one-year term, instead of the current three-year terms.

This is a real revolution. But, we like this approach. The market is making a NO.

Master Greenspan

He said: the U.S. housing sector was experiencing an "inventory recession." However, he also said a bottom had been hit in the decline of U.S. home sales.

The "io-io" economy!

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Gray days

  1. We do not like the level of shares increasing and increasing.
  2. We do not like this: the nation's second-largest homebuilder said a year-long housing slump is unlikely to end this year and the Federal Reserve cited slowing growth in several local economies.
  3. We do not like this: Almost 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 8.9 percent more than the three-month average.

Monday, March 5, 2007

The Motley Fool cheating game over Altair

Altair goes up on news and The Fools strike back:

"The Motley Fool has written about Altair (Nasdaq: ALTI) for a number of years now, and most of the stories have tended to criticize various aspects of the company. In spite of some encouraging recent news, I would like to offer yet another reason for investors to be cautious about investing in Altair: a competitor that seems to hitting on all cylinders. The company is A123 Systems and, like Altair, it also develops lithium-ion battery technology." (bold is ours)


The Fools have lost its fake hair and now shows its nude baldness: The Fools are attacking Altair because they are on A123 Systems' side and are concerned about Altair be considered by the market and automakers the number one in electric batteries. So, when the IPO of A123 Systems occurs - and it will... - it can have better possibilities of success.

However, they keep asking: "Interested in other Foolishness about Altair?" Don't bother: we've seen your cheating game. I wonder until when will the market consent on this unfair attacks by a firm that behaves so unbiased.

Sunday, March 4, 2007

Ford: to divest


The American auto industry is in the middle of a major restructuring. Drive or die!

Friday, March 2, 2007

PHLX index vs DJIA index

PHLX GOLD AND SILVER SECTOR INDEX vs DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX

5 days



10 years


If we look at tree we can't see the forest.

That's why i believe in gold recover if U.S. Economy Slip Into Recession.


Red day for Gold

One more red day for the markets. One more red day for Gold and Gold stocks!

If we look at the 5 years Gold chart we can say that gold could fall to $600 an once in short time.


Probably, it will be next week. On the long term we expected to see gold recover.

Lessons from Omaha

Every year, The Oracle of Omaha, launch some stress on market watchers. This year, Warren Buffett main topic was "The 'investment income' account of our country—positive in every previous year since 1915—turned negative in 2006. Foreigners now earn more on their U.S. investments than we do on our investments abroad. In effect, we've used up our bank account and turned to our credit card".

The "twin deficits" is making America poorer, because America is living according to the credit card rules!

Two more issues from Berkshire Hathaway: 1) Buffett announced that Yahoo's chief financial officer, Susan Decker, will join Berkshire's board in May; 2) the U.S. dollar will continue its gradual weakening—and he continues to hold that position, basing his view on the country's large trade imbalances.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

West versus East

According to the magazine Consumer Report, says MNSBC today:

"Japanese vehicle brands continue to rule the roost when it comes to car reliability, according to the latest annual survey from Consumer Reports.

Toyota and Honda’s brands scored top marks overall in the magazine’s “2007 Annual Car Reliability Survey,” which was compiled from survey responses from over 1.3 million magazine subscribers. The survey results will appear in the April issue of Consumer Reports magazine, which goes on sale March 6.

Toyota, Honda, Scion, Acura and Lexus took the top five places, in order, in the Consumer Reports list of the 36 most reliable car brands for 2007. Ford’s Mercury brand was the highest-placed U.S. nameplate, ranking 10th, while General Motors’ best-ranking brand was GMC, which came in at 14th on the list. Chrysler highest ranking was for its Dodge brand, which was placed 22nd on the list.

What’s more, for the second time in the 10-year history of the annual list, all of the magazine’s top car picks were Japanese brands. In addition, 55 of the 59 used car models recommended by the magazine were Japanese, again dominated by Toyota and Honda.

The snub by the closely watched consumer publication comes at a time of crisis for the Detroit-based automakers — GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler Group. All three U.S. automakers are shedding jobs and closing plants in an attempt to cope with a devastating loss of market share.

“Japanese models are still the most reliable — Toyota and Honda in particular,” said Rik Paul, automotive editor for Consumer Reports. “For years, their vehicles have consistently been the least problematic and the best in terms of reliability for years".

On average, the biggest increase in reported problems for cars comes when they are between 5 and 6 years old, which is when many owners think about selling their car. This is also the point where Toyota and Honda’s models excel in terms of reliability Paul said. The average 10-year-old Toyota or Honda has the same, or fewer, problems than a 4 or 5-year-old car from any of the U.S. automakers, or Volkswagen, he said.

“What we see is if a car starts out with problems in the first couple of years it will tend to stay problematic throughout its lifetime,” Paul said. “This is where Toyota and Honda really shine — they start out well and maintain their reliability, even through 10 years of use, and so a 9-year-old Lexus can have fewer problems than a 2006 Mercedes.”

When it comes to comparing new cars by nationality, one trend stood out: European automakers continue to lag Asian and North American manufacturers when it comes to reliability.

The big Japanese and the South Korean automakers have, on average, only 11 problems per 100 vehicles, the magazine said. U.S. automakers follow with 16 problems per 100, while European manufacturers have 19 problems per 100 cars.

In fact, European automakers have consistently fared poorly in recent years in Consumer Reports’ reliability surveys. Mercedes-Benz, in particular, has seen its reliability ranking decline sharply — this year, the German luxury brand placed last in the reliability list of 36 automobile brands, its reliability level 123 percent below the average for the whole industry, said Paul."


In this scenario of decadence of american and european automarkers, I maintain my confidence in the revolution of the electric car. Past week, Phoenix Motorcars president Dan Elliot was received, plus its vehicle with Altairnano batteries (35 Kw version, charged in 10 minutes, 130 miles per charge), begining full production in June, by president Bush, alongside with A123 Systems (charging in 5 hours and lasting 40 miles per charge...). The video can be seen here.


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair, which has made an agreement to establish a position in Phoenix Motorcars.