Altair completes order of electric batteries

Altair Nanotechnologies (Nasdaq: ALTI) "completes $750,000 battery pack shipment for Phoenix Motorcars", informs Market Wire.

The biggest problem with nanotechnologies, someone said, is that the growth perspectives are excellent... but it lacks commercially viable products and financial results. Although, Altair Nanotechnologies seems to contradict these assumptions: begins to deliver final products and gets closer to profits. Altair can be of the firsts nanotechnology companies to reach profits and pay shareholders their expectations. I still think that nanotechnologies will be the next bubble and that energy discoveries can be the engine of this boom.


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair.

2006: a fine year

Source: www.bigtrends.com

After a fine return in 2006, next year will be possibly good. To us, it is important to find basic materials as the most profitable sector in the year. It is clearly a sign of the strength of the emerging countries (China, India, Brasil, Russia, Vietnam and others). Probably, in 2007 we will see these emerging countries arriving to new products and services, and through this, to strengthen new markets like technology and financial services. Pay attention also to the energy sector and to autos (mergers and alliances will come again).

High 2007

Read this: U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in December. The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment climbed to 109.0 in December. Economists polled by Reuters on average had forecast a December reading of 102.0.

And this: The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 52.4 from 49.9 in November. Economists had forecast the index at 50.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Finnally this: The number of workers applying for jobless benefits rose a smaller-than-expected 1,000 to 317,000 in the week ended Dec. 23. Wall Street economists had forecast that claims in the Dec. 23 week would be a seasonally adjusted 320,000.

Despite, next FED rate decision, 2007 will have a good start.

LAB. A good trading channel.

As my comment in base and breakout GMST 22.12.06 post, my contributions to this blog will mainly be related with technical analysis. In this post I present a trading channel formed by LAB (LaBranche & Co. Inc.) from September 2006 until now. Altough this stock received a very bad evaluation from some analysts (see for example http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=LAB), in my opinion we have a lot of reasons to stay long in this one.

Yesterday and today the price emerges from the bottom of a very interesting classic trading channel, as we can see in the chart. The MACD and RSI have a bull trend, the RSI crosses the 50 line and we have the MA50 has suport (green). Altough some risk is involved because we have some bear long term trend, in my opinion a long position is the right choice, with a stop loss at 9.90 close to the MA50 suport and the bottom of the trading channel.

And there is one more reason, and this time is a fundamental one! The price/book for LAB is only 0.75! A very rare number. A strong evidence that is very difficult for the price to continue to go down.

Ford Motor Company

Yesterday, it was the last day of President Ford. Today, The Wall Street Journal tried some gossip, about an eventual meeting of Toyota and Ford CEO's.

Are we witnessing another gossip about Ford, like the one with Renault/Nissan? We will see it.

But, look it to the volume of Ford stock, during December 2006: huge. We will see, if it is bad or good!

And the winner is....

The oil still is in command. We ear about new energies, from air, from sea, from lithium batteries, but oil still is the most affordable and reliable commodity, in energy field.

We are, among a crowded legion of people, believers in a kind of quest for oil, in a typical Hollywood contest, all over the world. We only see news from certain countries, because of oil or natural gas, like Angola, Nigeria, Turkmenistan, Dubai or Brunei.

We read this: "I like energy and materials because emerging economies like China and India just have such demand to grow, and they need materials and energy to do it,".

Even, if US will stay in sidelines, in 2007, believe that this kind of news, will only help energy sector stocks:

• At least 200 people died today in a large fire after a burst fuel pipeline exploded in Nigeria's largest city, Lagos.

Of course, if you buy Total, Exxon-Mobil or BP, probably you will not have a huge return, but you have probably a safe and nice return.

Commodities Price 2007 Outlook

Birinyi Associates Ticker Sense show us the consensus 2007 excepted commodities price change from numerous analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Take a look at the graphic below:

Source: Birinyi Associates Ticker Sense

Only three commodities are expected to rise in 2007: gold, oil and natural gas.

GMST. Big price explosion coming soon?

GMST. Big price explosion coming soon?

One of my favourites setups is 3 month base followed by a breakout in big volume. We have it with GMST!

Motley Fool crusade against Altair

Motley Fool did it again to Altair!... Such a systematic punishment - see our post "Why the Fools?..." of December 4, 2006... - can no longer be viewed as simple and pure harshness of analysis.

In the previous commentary, on August 24 2006, Jack Uldrich has pinpoint:

"The company only has about $14 million in cash on hand, and with a current burn rate of slightly more than $1 million a month, Gotcher must begin delivering within the next year." [bold ours]

Now, Uldrich states:

"(...) the company had raised an additional $23 million by offering 9.3 million shares at $2.70 apiece. This news, too, can be read a couple of different ways.
It might be good news to some, because it suggests that the company is on schedule to begin mass-producing its latest nanotechnology-related product -- its lithium-ion battery technology -- and needs money to ramp up for that purpose. For others, it could easily be viewed as the latest in a long line of management's attempts to bilk unsuspecting investors with the promise of a breakthrough technology.
Where do I land? Count me in the skeptical camp (...). Altair has been promising results for five years now, with nothing to show for it. Furthermore, for a company with paltry revenue, its stock -- even in its newly diluted state -- remains ridiculously expensive." [bold ours]

The future - the ultimate judge - will prove commercially viable products and financial results or that Jack Uldrich/Motley Fool crusade is right... I trust Altair.


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair.

Global Economic Outlook 2007

Is a crisis imminent, or are things better than we thought?
Take a look at Deloitte Research Publication and try to understand what’s going on around the world.

No news

To read this: Toyota said to overtake Ford in January 2007; it is like to say this: in 2007, USA will not leave Iraq.

And Ford will be third in cars, in USA. Because, globally, Ford is now third.

The picture for America's automakers are not good, even in USA:

• GM enjoyed 28% market share in 2001. Today they have 24%.
• Ford had 21% in 2001. Today they have 15%.
• Daimler-Chrysler came from near 15% market share to a 13% level, now.

Probably, Asians do it better!

Pay attention

We all have dreams: to have a company, to start a new business or to stay in a typical career.

We love examples like Gates, Dell, Jobs or Brin. Why not to look to some new guys in town? In other words, look to future very wealthy Chairman or CEO.

You can find here, a bunch of them:

• Michael Rubin: 34 years, chief executive of GSI Commerce, a King of Prussia (Pa.)-based e-commerce company with $524.6 million in revenue in the 12 months ended Sept. 30.
• Harry Vafias: 28, CEO of StealthGas, in Athens, Greece.
• Michael Soenen: 36, chief of flower seller FTD.
• David Liu: 41, CEO of wedding information Web site The Knot.

But remember this: Many of the youngest CEOs achieved their position by launching their own companies from scratch.

And this: Internet CEOs were young by nature.

Wall Street

We like to read this type of news: Wall Street bonuses hit record $24B.

This will be huge to New York city and NY state, and also to the securities industry and the staff.

The good income for the industry and good news for investors: The Dow (up 30.05 to 12,471.32) rose about 0.2 percent to post its 21st record close since October.

Are we facing another step? Or the heat is great?

Blood Baht

Markets are in a heat process. All over the world, indexes are up. But we know, from statistics, that everything that goes up comes down!

Tonight, we had a small warning, from Thailand:

• Thai stocks suffered their biggest drop since Asia's 1997 financial crisis as foreign investors took fright at drastic measures to rein in the baht, prompting calls for a central bank U-turn.
• The currency dropped 2 percent from Monday's 9-1/2-year high after the central bank, worried strength in Asia's best-performing currency would hurt exporters, slapped controls on short-term speculative money inflows.
• The main stock index plunged more than 13 percent to a two-year low at one point, wiping more than $20 billion.

Be cautious. The overheat could hurt your holdings!

New wave

We have used to ear about mergers and acquisitions, particularly from: raiders, big investment companies (like Goldman or Merrill Lynch) or the typical hostile or friendly take-over.

Now we have a new wave and a new type of take-overs. We are used to ear almost everyday names like, KKR, Blackstone or Carlyle Group.

These new raiders are very aggressive, read this:

• Kohlberg Kravis Roberts proposes buying Vivendi for $50 billion, a record-sized deal that would have been unthinkable just a year ago.
• Blackstone Group announces that it's raising a $20 billion fund, the biggest ever.

Probably, after the boom, the bust will come!

Sectors for investment #1

With this post, we begin looking for sectors that qualify for good opportunities of investment.

Sectors for Investment #1 - Nanotechnologies

The first that I pinpoint is the nanotechnology sector, which has made a long journey since prof. Norio Taniguchi of the Tokyo Science University coined the term in 1974.

More than genetics that once was viewed as a sure bet for growth investors until the public realized that it would be needed several years (10?...) to supply commercially viable products.

The sector of nanotechs that deals with pharmaceuticals has difficulties of the same kind that genetics: years ahead of research and test to get FDA approval. But nanotechs units researching in fields like energy, materials, information and communication, equipment, robotics, can meet investors' expectations of medium-term products' launch.

Energy: a bounce back

Yesterday, the "major oil and gas index" have increased 1,52%. OPEC is trying to reduce production. New energies are not yet available. Exxon-Mobil says that oil will continue to be the major energy, even 20 years from now.

Look to: Conoco-Phillips, Petrochina (where Buffett has a stake), Total and ENI.

Like it or not, we will continue to need oil!

Airline stocks: take a look

Warren Buffett have regretted for investing in US Airways. Airline business is a good business for pilots and managers, not for investors.

The oil costs, the huge number of Companies in the business and the terror threat, have been a major weapon against airline business.

But, Southwest Airlines have been a good case for more than a decade. Today, we have also a new top manager, US Air CEO Doug Parker, which is leading a new way in the business.

After the attack on Delta, from US Airways, United Airlines is attacking Continental. And as far as last Wednesday, the Amex Airline Index jumped 3%.

Probably, we are in a new step of the airline business, after low-cost carriers, we have a merger trend in the next months.

Globalisation is in good shape

According to the World Bank, globalisation is in good shape: "The World Bank's annual global economic prospects report, released on Wednesday, is a rare thing these days: a study glowing with optimism about the future for globalisation".

And this, could mean a victory to the western countries, particularly US: "Key to the report's long-term projections is the emergence of a "global middle class" - defined as those with an annual per capita income between the average in Brazil and in Italy, about $4,000 and $17,000 respectively".

And this: "These are the buyers behind, for example, the massive rise in car ownership in China's cities, which appears to reflect an obsession with car ownership as a membership badge of the country's emerging consumer class as much as it does a means of transportation along Beiing's increasingly traffic-clogged roads".

A new light for oil

Big oil company ExxonMobil is betting on oil, again:

• ExxonMobil delivered its annual long term energy forecast Tuesday, saying that it expects the world will use 60% more energy in 2030 than in did in 2000.
• But despite this spike in demand, the oil giant does not expect to see any increase in the use of renewable energy sources from 2006 levels.

Is it a big trap, the investments in renewable energy? Or is it, like a fashion?

We believe in a much more non-oil dependent economy. We will see it.

Stagcrisis

Fed's decision to mantain its current interest rates - federal funds rate now at 5,25% - doesn't seem to cool the markets turbulence. Furthermore, the threat of stagflation persists over promises of soft landing...

Detroit: a chaos

Ford is in turmoil. GM is trying to survive. Daimler-Chrysler is in trouble, too:

• DaimlerChrysler AG could lay off up to 4,000 at Freightliner, its North American truck operations next year, Andreas Renschler, a member of the automaker's board of management who heads its truck operations.

Is it a reason to think that Henry Ford, Alfred P. Sloan and Lee Iacoca, did not have any successors?

US: soft or hard landing?

The FED is praying for a soft landing. Bernanke is threatening with a new rate increase. Unemployment is at a good level: 4.5%.

Nevertheless, the currencies traders believe in a hard landing, because of this:

• They appear to be trading on the belief that, while US interest rates will fall in an effort to counter a slowdown, European rates will continue to rise – and, by implication, that Europe’s economic upswing has some way to go.

Pay attention, during next weeks.

Ford: a nightmare?

We are people that admire the icon Ford and the entrepreneur Henry Ford.

Nevertheless, we think Ford is in crossroads: the turnaround or the end.

Read this:

• Ford is losing market share in the U.S. for the 11th consecutive year.
• Its U.S. sales tumbled 9.6 percent last month as the automaker lost business to rivals.
• The automaker reported a loss of $6.99 billion for the first nine months of 2006.
• its shares have fallen 7.25 percent this year to $7.16.
• The automaker's U.S. decline this year has been led by some of its best-selling vehicles, such as the F-Series pickup, down 10 percent through November, and the Explorer sport-utility vehicle, whose sales fell 26 percent.

But the markets have given them, enough money to support the turnaround:

• a new $18.5 billion loan agreement, will provide the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker with enough money to eliminate 40,000 jobs and close nine factories.
• The $4.5 billion of 4.25 percent bonds (convertible bonds) due in 2036 .

....but the market is making a warning:

• Fitch Ratings on Dec. 6 cut Ford's unsecured debt one level to B- from B.
• Moody's rates the notes Caa1 and S&P gave them an equivalent ranking CCC+.
• Bonds rated below BBB- by S&P and Fitch and Baa3 by Moody's are considered below-investment grade

This will be a fine management lesson, for the future: the excellence or the complete failure.

Dollar hits 20-month low...

The US dollar is exceeding even what we might think of this phase of the Iraq War, the crude oil price (above US$63/barrel) and twin deficits: 1 Euro = 1.337 USD... Similar, but not quite, as the crisis of the Vietnam War and oil price spikes, the dollar depreciation continues: a known strategy of softening the economic and financial effects of war and oil price increase.

Crude oil prices - 1947-2006

Euro - US Dollar exchange rates prices - 1999-2006

There can be no hope of short-term inversion of this scenario until the pull out of american troops from Iraq occur and competitive forms of automotive energy becomes viable. Even that doesn't seem to solve the problem. With US army out, Iraq War, then with its neighbours (Syria and Iran and Saudi Arabia) involved, will claim huge sums of money and this very III World War with the islamic fundamentalism, that we suffer, will continue. The world is dangerous and so the markets will maintain its present turbulence and risk.

Ford: killing moon

When things go wrong, managers need to pay.

Read this: Mark Schulz, its president of international operations, will retire early next year.

Wall Street have no mercy.

Ford: large session

3 hours until the end of today's session, Ford is trading 10 times the average daily volume: 250 million versus 30 million shares.

In a day that Ford announces: "late on Wednesday sold $4.5 billion of 30-year convertible bonds, according to market sources".

Price is declining more than 1%.

Dollar: the way to the moon?

Dollar devaluation is a "no news" issue. Secretary Paulson is a Wall Street guy and possibly a good manager, but what about the strength of the greenback?

Dollar versus Euro is near 1,35, just a way long from the previous 0,85 from some years ago.

The renminbi will not explain everything.

Is it a way to export devaluation to the Asia? Or is it a "twin deficits" problem?

Because, we don't believe the reason is about the Iraq issue!

Yahoo: another comeback?

Terry Semel is trying to get Yahoo back on track:

• Terry Semel promoted Chief Financial Officer Susan Decker to a new job overseeing advertising sales.
• Chief Operating Officer Dan Rosensweig will leave the company.
• Lloyd Braun, the former ABC television executive who ran Yahoo's media sites, also resigned.

The shake up is because of this:

• Yahoo's sales grew at the slowest pace in more than four years last quarter.
• the stock has plunged by almost a third this year.

Guess, who will be the next to leave?

GM announces hybrid SUV with lithium ion batteries

Rick Wagoner, GM Chairman and CEO, has said on November, 29:

"GM Announces Intention to Produce Plug-in Hybrid SUV
Saturn Vue Green Line Will Use Modified 2-mode Hybrid System, Lithium Ion Battery
LOS ANGELES – General Motors Corp. intends to produce a Saturn Vue Green Line plug-in hybrid that has the potential to achieve double the fuel efficiency of any current SUV, the automaker announced at the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show.
This hybrid SUV will use a modified version of GM’s 2-mode hybrid system and plug-in technology, a Lithium Ion battery pack when ready, highly efficient electronics and powerful electric motors to achieve significant increases in fuel economy.
“GM has begun work on a Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid production vehicle,” said Rick Wagoner, GM Chairman and CEO. “The technological hurdles are real, but we believe they are also surmountable. I can’t give you a production date for our plug-in hybrid today. But I can tell you that this is a top priority program for GM, given the huge potential it offers for fuel-economy improvement.”
A plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle differs from non-plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles by offering extended electric-only propulsion, additional battery capacity and the ability to be recharged from an external electrical outlet.
The Saturn Vue Green Line plug-in hybrid is expected to offer electric-only propulsion for more than 10 miles."

So, GM doesn't have the lithium ion battery technology yet. Which will be the supplier?

Detroit: a chaos?

Read this: "Joe Eberhardt becomes the latest departure from the U.S. division of DaimlerChrysler".

Another victim of the chaotic situation of Detroit. GM is trying to survive. Ford is in deep hole. Chrysler is a black hole. What the Germans of Daimler - Chrysler will do about this?

• a year of lower sales at the automaker, which has seen a decline of more than 7 percent so far in 2006.
• Chrysler is also trying to recover from a $1.5 billion loss in the third quarter.
• Chrysler also has about 50,000 vehicles in its "sales bank" - previously undisclosed parking lots full of vehicles unassigned to any dealers.
• Gary Dilts, who reported to Eberhardt as senior vice president of U.S. sales, and Raymond Fisher, former vice president of sales, service and parts, announced their retirements in June. Marketing executives Jeff Bell and Julie Roehm also resigned earlier this year.

The Asia, especially the Japanese and Koreans guys are the winners, for now!

Ford: turmoil on the mirror?

Ford Motor Company is struggling everyday. Great-Grandson of Henry Ford is out. Sales are down. Image is down. Reliability is down. Energy problem is not solved. Visteon still is a problem.

But, Ford is not the only looser. GM is scratching and Daimler - Chrysler is down-up-down.

But, Wilbur Ross, the billionaire, is trying to get the whole picture: 1) But auto sales remained relatively strong at around 17 million units. 2) half of the 50 largest suppliers in North America lost money in 2005. 3) very few earned more than 3 percent on revenues.

It is time to look for a bargain stock like Ford, with a market value of less than 14 billion. This is a small amount for a big auto. We do not even think of a Ford failure....

Kyphon: way to heaven

After 1 year in lazy way, Kyphon take off yesterday, after buying St. Francis Medical Technologies.

The amount was $725 million in stock and cash.

It is a big move to Kyphon, to complement the rapidly growing Minimally Invasive Spine Market.

Dangerous links

We like Boston Scientific, because they are a healthcare company and a specialist in stents. Nevertheless, today we have this: "Six physicians with financial ties to Johnson & Johnson and other heart-device makers will be advising U.S. regulators whether to restrict the use of some products because of potentially lethal side effects" and "The panel members, listed on an FDA Web site Nov. 22, will include Robert Harrington, who runs a Duke University research institute funded by stent makers J&J and Boston Scientific Corp".

We don't like this. To us, this is a bad practice. Let's see, what will say the markets today.

Why the Fools?...

Why does Motley Fool continues to punish Altair Nanotechnologies?!... Over and over again, when Altair Nanotechnologies reaches some milestone in its electric batteries program, Motley Fool appears to cool Altair quotes increase.

Is the "strict disclosure policy" of Motley Fool, and its employees, also enforced to other preference and bias than the ownership of stocks? Why is this criticism of Altair development again simultaneous to the praising of promises of A123Systems and also of Valence?...

"Yes, but...". Jack Uldrich states that Altair has already integrated the potential revenue into the stocks price; that raises doubts about the recharger, that you have to wait for the orders, that the batteries can explode!...

Why all these systematic buts whenever Altair stocks performs well?...


Disclaimer: I own stocks of Altair.

Healthcare stocks

One of the major drivers of services today is healthcare services. We can see a vast horizon of healthcare businesses, but we like particularly the medical devices business: pacemakers, CT, RM, ultrasound, etc.

Boston Scientific is a major medical device's player. Nevertheless, they are in bad shape, even before buying Guidant, another device's company. Sometimes, market makers love mergers and acquisitions, sometimes they don't like.

If we compare Boston Scientific with another medical devices Company, such as Johnson and Jonhson, Boston is a laggard: from 2 years ago, Boston returned - 60% versus Johnson + 10%.

We think future will be better for Boston, particularly because this: "Drug-coated stent makers are confident a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel, convened to examine the safety of the devices, will turn up no new surprises next week" and "Boston Scientific's Taxus and J&J's Cypher are the only two FDA-approved drug-coated stents. The worldwide market for the devices is estimated at more than $5 billion".

Charles Brandes, a billionaire investor, bought Boston some days ago.

GM and electric batteries

As a comentator suggests here, I also think that the electric batteries will gain the race over the fuel cells.

The comment, albeit anonymous, stresses that GM has made a recent move to the development of electric batteries over its previous choice - the fuel cells. As a matter of fact, Bob Lutz, GM vice-president, has said so in June, 2006 in an interview to Automative News: "Tom Stephens (group vice president of GM Powertrain), Rick Wagoner and I believe in the ultimate electrification of the automobile". Furthermore, Bob Lutz said that "(A) series hybrid could run primarily on electricity from lithium ion batteries, with an engine as backup to replenish the batteries". And recently, as Horse Power Sports notices, has mantained that "executives think electric vehicles are the future".

It seems that the future is knocking GM's door (and the other majors). And its name seems to be lithium ion batteries. Now, let's us see if they open the door. And which will be the supplier of the lithium ion batteries.

Electric batteries versus fuel cells

The war on the auto sector between electric batteries (nano titanate, lithium ion, nickel metal hydride and nickel cadmium) and fuel cells seems to replicate the late war between the Super 8 camera and the VCR technology.

If the electric batteries developers - Altair Nanotechnologies, Valence Technology and A123 Systems - accomplish their promised goals, then the fuel cells technology can be overidden and even become a pre-flop - a flop that doesn't even happen. That is, fuel cells, which, furthermore require a hydrogen station apparatus, batteries could never be launched.

Electric batteries developers say that batteries can be charged at stations or at the user garage. Altair has announced that Nanosafe batteries can sustain 15,000 cycles (charge/discarge), last for 130/250 miles per charge, charge in 10 minutes at the station or 2 hours at home. That would make the hydrogen technology... obsolete.

"The 35 KWh NanoSafe pack can be recharged in less than 10 minutes, with the appropriate battery charger and provides sufficient power and energy for a fleet vehicle to travel up to 130 miles. The 70 KWh NanoSafe pack can also be recharged in less than 10 minutes, with the appropriate battery charger and provides sufficient power and energy for a full sized SUV to travel up to 250 miles."

Unless the fuel cells technology achieves the neo-alchemic dream of transforming water directly into energy and a consumer can put water in the tank which would be processed in hydrogen and then in energy, an electric battery charged with 3 dollars (!) will be absolutely better.

Les jeux sont faits. So, let's wait for a supplier chosen by a major player and see the big contract coming...

Disclaimer: in my portfolio, I own shares of Altair.

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Why monere?

Money
"c. 1290, "coinage, metal currency," from O.Fr. moneie, from L. moneta "mint, coinage," from Moneta, a title of the Roman goddess Juno, in or near whose temple money was coined; perhaps from monere "advise, warn" (see monitor), with the sense of "admonishing goddess", which is sensible, but the etymology is difficult. Extended early 19c. to include paper money. To make money "earn pay" is first attested 1457. Highwayman's threat your money or your life first attested 1841. Phrase in the money (1902) originally meant "one who finishes among the prize-winners" (in a horse race, etc.). The challenge to put (one's) money where (one's) mouth is is first recorded 1942. Moneybags "rich person" is from 1818; money-grub "one who is sordidly intent on amassing money" is from 1768."

Online Ethimology Dictionary

That's the reason for the choice of the title of this blog. To freely advise, talk, discuss and consult about investments and business. Or money - from the latin "monere".