Peter Spina opinion about Gold Stocks

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The day after

The market is a little bit dull, even with the positive signs from Bernanke: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told members of Congress Wednesday that U.S. financial markets appear to be "working well" and are functioning normally.

But this: New home sales saw their steepest plunge in 13 years in January.

And this: The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual pace of 2.2 percent in the last three months of the year, according to the Commerce Department, down from the 3.5 percent rate the government estimated a month ago and still a bit better than the 2 percent growth rate seen in the third quarter.

Make us, a little bit worry!

Gold Stocks: Opportunity to Buy

Sometimes people make decisions without thinking about them.
Today the gold falls sharply as everything else.

But with a difference, I believe that gold and gold stocks will run again soon.

You may ask, why?

I give you the same answer:

1. Weak dollar
Experts are saying that US dollar will lose further ground in the face of the reducing growth and interest rate differential.

2. Threat of terrorism attacks
Terrorism's experts are saying it’s just a matter of when, not if, the US will be struck again.

3. Iran conflict
There is a speculation that Bush Administration has chosen Iran as its next target.


If U.S. Economy Slip Into Recession by End of Year, what do you prefer: a weak dollar in your pocket or gold?

That's your decision!

S&P: -3.44%

Imagine 3.44% less in major economy on Earth! It is too much.

Could this mean a near bear market? Or could this mean the next day rebound? If you compare 1.300 points one year ago, with +100 points today, the S&P is making 7.5% return.

In days like this, we want to be a small fly around Warren Buffett: who last year generated a 24 percent return for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders, may this week tell investors and followers to lower their sights for 2007.

Mini crash?

After the warning of Mr. Greenspan, about a possible future slowdown, Chinese investors had a bad day: Chinese stocks plunged nearly 9 percent Tuesday, erasing about $140 billion of value amid fears that authorities would crack down on speculation that drove shares to record highs.

Be cautious! Value investor behaviour will be the best in such times.

Dow: the next target?

Private Equity Companies will be the new threat to Management.

Take the new guy under attack: Dow Chemical Co. management would oppose any attempt by buyout firms to break up the chemical giant.

Look to this type of comments:
"we do not believe management is philosophically inclined to sell or break up the company."
"any unsolicited deal for Dow would likely be treated as very hostile by management."

Look to this chart:

Alan comeback

When you read this: "For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle". And you know that these words are from: Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.

You need to be cautious. And, Alan made an additional warning: "The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world".

Nasdaq pattern seems a little bit exhausted!

Gold price at $700 an ounce soon

Iran says its program is purely peaceful.

The White House says the United States has no intention of going to war with Iran

That’s why gold is going up!

Now, Alan Greenspan Warns That U.S. Economy May Slip Into Recession by End of Year.

What’s coming next?

The flight of the Phoenix

Phoenix Motorcars is flying:

"Daniel J. Elliott, CEO of Phoenix Motorcars, met with President George W. Bush this past Friday to discuss the future of alternative fuel and its impact on improving environmental and energy performance. The one-hour meeting included a small group of alternative fuel entrepreneurs and scientists.
Elliott was among a select group of alternative fuel specialists who had a one-on-one meeting with the President to discuss Phoenix Motorcars' role in the electric vehicle industry. Following the meeting, President Bush had the opportunity to get an up-close look at Phoenix's sport utility truck and four other alternative fuel vehicles to evaluate overall performance.
"It was a pleasure meeting with the President and having the opportunity to speak on behalf of the electric vehicle industry," says Elliott. "Shifting to alternative fuel is a viable and crucial solution to protect America's economy and ecosystem, which in turn has global implications."
President Bush recently proposed a mandatory alternative fuels standard during a January 23, 2007 State of the Union Address asking Congress, scientists, farmers, industry leaders and entrepreneurs to increase the supply of alternative fuels and reduce gasoline usage in the United States by 20 percent in the next 10 years. The "Twenty in Ten" plan will also require the Federal Government to increase its energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to purchase environmentally sound products."

Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies which is related to Phoenix Motorcars.

Private Equity attack

KKR and Texas Pacific Group will make the biggest deal in "private equity" business: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Texas Pacific Group are set to offer about $32 billion to buy Texas power company TXU Corp.

Finnally: the private equity firms could offer about $70 per share for TXU.

Are you one lucky guy?

Health care disease

The health care's costs are becoming unbearable by states and citizens:

"Health care is expected to account for $1 of every $5 spent in the United States in another decade.
That means a rise in out-of-pocket expenses, such as the copays for medicine, from about $850 this year to about $1,400 in 2016, a 5.3 percent annual increase."

It seems that the quest for the elixir of life is ruining countries and families. There is no known prescription or medicine adequate to a diagnosis already done. This race is also a symptom of moral degenerescence of a society unable to deal with death.

Bad moves

After loosing the Delta affair, Doug Parker have gained a day at the jail: US Airways CEO Doug Parker was sentenced to one day in prison Tuesday for driving under the influence of alcohol in Phoenix the night Delta Air Lines rejected a takeover bid from his company.

Economy in good shape

Management books reveals that consumers are the main trend of the market.

The University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) increased to an overall 74.9 score out of 100 in the fourth quarter of 2006, its highest level since the survey first started in 1994.

The winners from this survey are: Home Depot, Costco, Best Buy, Wachovia, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Charles Schwab.

Even with "twin deficits" Corporate America is in good shape.

Auto industry: too much capacity and players

The auto industry is like a volcano, exploding large amounts of mud. The reason for this explosion is simple: too many players in auto industry, in US.

Probably, US is becoming the "world arena" for automakers: GM (with brands like Chevrolet, Saab, Daewoo or Opel), Ford (with Ford, Mazda, Land Rover or Jaguar), Daimler-Chrysler (with Mercedes, Dodge or Smart), Toyota (with Toyota, Lexus), Honda, Hyunday, Nissan, VW (VW, Audi, or Rools-Royce), etc.

DaimlerChrysler today said fourth-quarter net income fell 40 percent to 577 million euros ($757 million) from 966 million euros. Revenue dropped 1.9 percent to 40.7 billion euros. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected net income of 726 million euros in the quarter.

No matter Zetsche will argue, Daimler will regain its previous name, Daimler-Benz.

Is gold on the march again?

MSN Money Senior Markets Editor

Get the answer listening Jim Jubak from the MSN Money.

"The gold is a hedge against rising financial risk"

Nasdaq: these days

When big investors head for the exits, the party's over for the smaller ones. One way to spot that trend is to pay close attention to distribution days--days when the market is down more than 0.2% on higher volume than the previous session.

We know things could be bad, if big guys will get out of stocks. If we look to the two figures, we don't see any similar pattern. Nevertheless, Nasdaq Composite is in a stagnation situation since November 2006, without decreasing volume. Is the emerging markets volume explaining everything?

Automakers restructuring

General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, is in discussions with DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler unit on an alliance to share the costs of designing and developing cars, people with knowledge of the talks said.

Smells like a merger! Three automakers will be two....

We don't believe in an engagement.

The automaker turmoil

The last to fall is Chrysler. Unexpetected? No. We do not understand the reason, guys like Iacocca or Alfred Sloan did not have actually, any inheritor, in the American auto industry.

DaimlerChrysler AG may sell or seek partners for its unprofitable Chrysler division, abandoning its vision of building a successful carmaker that sold luxury Mercedes-Benz sedans as well as Dodge pickup trucks.

For long time, the American auto industry lived in a kind of separated market, delighted with the dream idea of a one dollar a gallon of gasoline. Big cars wasting energy and lots of horsepower devastated the automakers.

What about now? The Asian guys will have even more power in the future, because actually, they are Japanese and Korean, but in the future they will be also Chinese and Indian.

We hope, next Administration will not have any protectionist idea!

U.S. Trade Deficit & Gold Stocks

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record High for Fifth Consecutive Year

It’s good news for gold stocks, bad news for US dollar.

GM and Ford: The corporate America challenged

If you look to the figures, they develop a similar pattern. Why? Because, they are facing same challenges. Industrial America is facing a tremendous challenge, in the era of globalisation: to be an active member in the major industry, or not....

We believe the inheritors of Sloan and Henry Ford will make the necessary turnaround. Otherwise, "corporate America" will be devastated in coming years. The Lou Gerstner story will fit like a glove in the American auto industry.

Finally, remember GM market value is only 21 billion and Ford is less than 16 billion.

I guess that's why they call it the... Fools!...

The Motley Fool again and again on Altair Nanotechnologies. Every time happens a spike at Altair's stock price or a consolidation tendency at its shares, there comes The Motley Fool with its systematic negative campaign against Altair. Something for the SEC to pay attention.

The spanyards have an old saying "(Y)o no creo en las brujas, pero que las hay, hay!..." (I don't believe in the witches, but that they exist, they do!...). In the broad investment business there are a lot of demons, ranging from contracts put by a competitor on some company's fate to short trading after panic news. These practices are illegal but they exist.

I cannot accuse The Motley Fool of illegal practices. But I can evaluate The Motley Fool's negative systematic campaign against Altair, an evidence of coincident wrongdoing.

Nevertheless, albeit the perplexity of the market about The Motley Fool's behavior its negative campaign against Altair continues. I guess that's why they call it the... Fools!...


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies.

Telecom: a world of disruption

Vodafone takes the 4th mobile company in India, from Hutchinson Whampoa: Vodafone Group Plc has won the battle for a controlling stake in Hutchison Essar with a bid that values India's fourth-biggest mobile firm at around $19 billion.

We don't believe in this kind of battle. Why? Because, smells like ......the battle of old dinosaurs. Vodafone is trying to survive, in a jungle full of guys.

The rewards will go to the management, not to the shareholders (probably pension funds without enough nerve to say no to some fat management).

The winner is, again, Li Ka-shing, the leader of the conglomerate.

Detroit on track?

We believe that GM and Ford will survive, in long term. Deutsche Bank made a contribution, in short term: General Motors and Ford led stocks higher on Friday. Both got a lift from a ratings upgrade from Deutsche Bank.

General Motors (up $2.06 to $35.86, Charts) and Ford Motor (up $0.29 to $8.84, Charts).

Ford: Mullaly is on track

Ford stock is developing a fine trend. Mulally is being accepted by the market.

If you have doubts, you can read on Toyota lips: Press (President of Toyota - USA) said the U.S. automakers will recover, adding that they are taking the right steps by reducing production in North America and reinvigorating their vehicle lineups.

Probably, Ford is trying to revive, like IBM made in the nineties with Lou Gerstner: focus, focus, focus, instead of trying to be big at any cost.

Oil & Gold

Have you ever read “The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century” from James Howard Kunstler?

Maybe the book is too negative about the future.

What do you think about it?

And, how about "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak" , from Kenneth S. Deffeyes?

His main concern is not our long-term adaptation to a world beyond oil but our immediate future: “Through our inattention, we have wasted the years that we might have used to prepare for lessened oil supplies. The next ten years are critical.”

Think about it!

Now you may understand this:

What’s coming next?

I'm pessimistic about future and optimistic about Gold.

Boston: strong wind

Boston Scientific is loosing today, almost 3%, and this occurs, because of this news: The medical device maker Medtronic is planning three major product launches this year including an implanted device meant to be an early warning system for heart disease patients.

Another "nervous" point for investors is: For 2007, the company has concluded that forecasting the rate of growth in the cardiac rhythm management market and the drug-eluting stent market will be difficult, given the events and volatility in both markets during 2006. Since these two markets are so significant to the company's forecasted results of operations in 2007, the company believes it is appropriate to provide guidance only for the first quarter.

We still believe in Boston.

Gold Outlook Positive

Gold still outlook positive, in spite of the lost of last two days.

Take a look about the opinion of Widmer and Hunter.

Michael Widmer, an analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank, said he would still expect the United States to lower interest rates.

Hunter, on the other hand, said he expected gold trading would continue to be volatile.

But, certainly, the market is shifting back its outlook to higher prices for the remainder of the year, and that trend remains intact," Hunter added.

You can read the entire article at Reuters “Gold recovers on bargain hunting, outlook bright”.

Today, Gold close at 648 (lost 0,43%).

Boston, again!

We like Boston Scientific. Things were not good, particularly after Guidant take-over. Market makers do not like poor performance, and Boston did not return properly, after Guidant purchase. Boston still is far away from good performance: I suspect they overpaid for Guidant, and their CFO was unhappy with the amount of leverage. Clearly, they need to fix the balance sheet and said they would do so. But that will take some time.

But, current situation is better: The observational study published in the Feb. 1 issue of the American Journal of Cardiology, the company said, showed drug-eluted stents reduced the risk of myocardial infarction, or heart attack, and death by 23 percent and 32 percent, versus 3.7 percent and 4.7 percent in bare-metal stent patients.

Michael Dell strikes again

Michael Dell retook the helm, and he wants to prove its superior talent. Look to this statement: "We have great people...but we also have a new enemy: bureaucracy, which costs us money and slows us down," Dell wrote.

Reshaping Dell, Inc., top posts, it is its main tasks for now: Paul Bell, who now runs the company's European operations, will become top executive for the Americas operations that account for two-thirds of the company's revenue. Chief Financial Officer Don Carty will also take on more responsibilities, including human resources and investor relations.

But, some drawbacks still is around the corner: A class-action lawsuit filed this week in Austin claims that the company inflated profits with secret payments of about $1 billion a year from chip maker Intel Corp. (INTC).

Last of the Mohicans's strategy of GM and Ford

These are the titles today for the car industry about January, 2007 sales:

"Car sales shocker: Ford tumbles to No. 4
GM sales down 16.6%; Ford down 19%; DaimlerChrysler's up 3.2%"

Apparently there is no near recovery for Ford or GM. Simultaneously, Toyota rose to US's n.º 2 automaker. Even DaimlerChrysler is from mixed foreign origin (Germany). The Last of the Mohicans's strategy of american automakers of insisting on big cars, big power, big oil spenders, may, if the course isn't changed, lead to their death, alone and miserable.

Sorry, but maybe plain and words are necessary: "It's the ecology, stupids!".

Automakers: winners and losers

After the turmoil of US automakers, specially Ford and GM, we see the headlines on Nissan: Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Co. said Friday that profit tumbled 22.6 percent in the October-December quarter amid rising commodity costs, tougher competition and softening sales.

At the other side, the winners are: Toyota and Honda (Nissan, which was recently surpassed by Honda as Japan's third-largest automaker in terms of vehicle production).

The major problems for the losers are: US market (Nissan was "certain" to miss its global sales target of 3.73 million units for the business year ending on March 31 as it underperformed in the United States and Japan), energy and innovativeness (In the first half of the fiscal year, Nissan launched just one of 10 new products scheduled for introduction).

Finally this: Combined U.S. sales for January by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. outstripped those by GM and Ford combined.

Aqua Teen Hunger Force case

Aqua Teen Hunger Force device

MSNBC reported today the solution of the suspicious Aqua Teen Hunger Force case: a marketing plan...

"At least nine electronic devices planted at bridges and other spots in Boston threw a scare into the city Wednesday in what a cable network said was a marketing campaign for a late-night cartoon.
Highways, bridges and a section of the Charles River were shut down and bomb squads were sent in before authorities declared the devices were harmless.
«It’s a hoax — and it’s not funny,» said Gov. Deval Patrick before the objects were determined to be part of an ad campaign.
Turner Broadcasting, parent company of Cartoon Network, said the devices, which consisted of magnetic, blinking lights, were part of a promotion for the TV show «Aqua Teen Hunger Force.»"

Marketing is to blame for the Aqua Teen Hunger Force case?

Marketing is just a science for decision makers to apply, ruthless or pious. It's not the malign cause or devious principle responsible for unexpected consequences. But the market isn't prepared for marketing communications new techniques, that doesn't use common advertising media, and even use happenings to captivate media attention and exponential diffusion based on supposedly random behavior.

The new techniques have a variety of names and buzzwords, but are mainly based on word-of-mouth amplified by naïve media attention or organized leak. An indirect approach or media bait, using the enemy means and forces to strike deeply. From anonymous flyers to media campaigns like the "Old Boot" of the movie "Wag the Dog", culminating with the intriguing flash mob, marketing is changing from the classic, heavy and expensive, instruments to contemporary, light and cheap, campaigns which often reaches more people and have stronger, natural and legitimate, impact.

The world is flipping and the new coin (monere) is Knowledge.

ALTI. A positive MACD divergence.

Good signs for ALTI:

The price are above the 20 simple moving average, RSI indicator crosses to the upside the 50 line and we have a positive divergence between the MACD and the price movement. We have positive divergences when price levels fall to new lows but MACD fail to decline to a more negative area. At the beginning of January the price of ALTI fall to a new low but MACD fail to achive a new low.

Altought we have good signs, be careful with this one, because sometimes we have other low in price with a second MACD divergence. With favourable intraday evidence a possible trade is enter long with a stop loss near 2.55 usd.