Dell: Out

Michael Dell, the leader of the PC maker, that reinvented the supply chain of computers manufacturing, leads again Dell, after this: Dell also said its fiscal fourth-quarter results would be below the average of First Call Estimates for both revenue and earnings per share.

After-hours, Dell share is up +4.17%.

Look to this mess:

Federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent

As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent

You can see more on the MarketWatch.

NYSE

After taking Euronext, the Stock Exchange of Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels and Lisbon, NYSE is taking Tokyo Stock Exchange: The pact between the two exchanges was confirmed by the Tokyo Stock Exchange late Tuesday, with details to be announced at a news conference Wednesday morning in New York.

Oil: let's go again!

Oil gained the most in 16 weeks yesterday and gasoline jumped 5.6 percent after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence neared a five-month high.

Are we in the up-side of the cycle, again? After touching 80 dollars a barrel, the down-side came until 50 dollars. Today we have witnessed to a significant up! Is the “ethanol Bush Plan” a clue to a new skyrocket oil price?

Fed Meeting Tomorrow

The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow may determine the course of interest rates and direction of the gold metal.

So if you have gold stocks pay attention to these meet.

Another Icahn attack

When you see some blood bleeding, you'll see sharks, a lit bit later.

Carl Icahn, the famous raider, is again searching for another target: Motorola.

Read this: Motorola, the nation's largest cell phone maker, announced Tuesday that financier Carl Icahn is seeking a position on its board of directors.

Look to the Table, below, and you can understand the Icahn behaviour.

Greg McCoach's 2007 Gold Outlook

Beyond 2007, Greg McCoach's, believes that gold could march to levels most people wouldn't think possible. We are talking about values much higher than $1,000 an ounce.
See more on The Wealth Daily.

A egg in the nest

Citi bought the online bank Egg, from Prudential (UK): The deal will give the U.S. bank a substantial boost in the U.K. market, through the addition of Egg's 2.9 million card customers, who represent over 5% of U.K. credit card balances.

The market is not having a good answer: -0,38%.

Escape from Telcos

Deutsche Telekom is one of the biggest Telco Company of the world. The type of traditional ex-monopoly of European countries: big, present in every business, from fix lines to mobile, and internet. Today, they have also ex-Voicestream (actually T-Mobile). The picture is even darker if you think the German government still is a big shareholder.

Last week end, and again, shareholders from DT faced another disappointed figures: The Company said adjusted earnings last year were within its target range of 19.2 billion euros to 19.7 billion euros. Revenue was 61.3 billion euros, missing a target range of 61.5 billion euros to 62.1 billion euros.

DT CEO is on the job, from two months ago, and the strategy is not clear: ``We're confident that this year we'll be able to improve our market position in the broadband market,'' Obermann said yesterday. ``We must invest to safeguard our position. It's a difficult market''.

Get rid of Telco's! Specially, the ones with a "no focus" strategy.

Iran conflict and Gold Stocks

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in November his country expects its uranium enrichment program to be ready by February to meet Iran's nuclear fuel needs.

We will soon know the news about the Iran Nuclear Program. Probably it will be one more step for the next crisis, and one more step to gold stocks.

Psychological impact

After the huge loss of $ 12.7 billion, Ford has sustained the stock value. Today, market sold 100 million shares, double the daily average.

We think, market is thinking the right way: "We began aggressive actions in 2006 to restructure our automotive business so we can operate profitably at lower volumes and with a product mix that better reflects consumer demand for smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles," Alan Mulally said in a statement.

Gold Stocks again!

If you are not a day trader why do you look just until tomorrow?
Don’t do it. Look forward until next three or five years.
Now, what do you see? What do you believe?

We told you that gold stocks were a good idea. When we told you that, Goldcorp closed at 26,19. Today close at 26,93.

For these days that’s what happens:

Source: msn

When we look just until tomorrow, we don't understand where does it goes!

If you are not a day trader try to answer those questions, for the next three or five years:

1. Weak dollar?

2. Threat of terrorism attacks?

3. Iran conflict?

Well, you can see my opinion in the post “Why Gold Stocks?”

ABC. A breakaway Gap?

Usually the gaps are classified in four types: breakaway, continuation, exhaustion and common.

With Amerisourcebergen Corp. (ABC) we have a pattern of a breakaway gap that often signals the beginning of a major market move and often occurs after the completation of a constructive base. With ABC we have that, so we antecipate a market move.

YHOO. Fibonacci ratio work as support level.

Yesterday fibonacci ratio 0.618 work perfectly as a support level for Yahoo (YHOO). Note that we also have the 20 day moving average working as support.

The Fibonacci number series, with the name of a italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci, appear in a lot of patterns in nature and also appear frequently in financial markets patterns.

The property behind this number series is that each number is equal to the sum of the two preceding numbers and in order to determine support and resistance levels we use ratios derived from this sequence. The most important are 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618, important levels to anticipate the end of a pull back. In this case, yesterday, the ratio o.618 (any number in the serie after the first five divided by the next number) work perfectly. The question now is: The movement will continue? Our recommendation is to enter long if you have intraday evidence with a stop at 27.4 usd.

Bush's push for plug-in and hybrid vehicles

President Bush's State of the Union Address, delivered yesterday meets the goal of delivering alternative energy and directly new electric batteries:

"We need to press on with battery research for plug-in and hybrid vehicles"

But even more important than this general goal, Los Angeles Times says that today, through an executive order, President Bush:

"ordered the government today to move toward purchasing hybrid-powered vehicles and reducing the federal fleet's petroleum consumption by 2% each year through 2015.

The executive order, consolidating earlier ones while setting new goals, follows his call in the State of the Union address Tuesday night for the nation to reduce its overall use of gasoline by 20% over 10 years. (...)

His executive order is intended to put the federal government, which Bush noted operates the nation's largest automobile fleet, in the position of trying to lead by example, White House officials said.

Bush said the government was being directed to purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles, which he said could be driven 20 miles before their batteries were drained and the engines needed to switch over to more conventional power. But he said the purchases only could be made when the vehicles are commercially available.

He said, however, that the potential federal market for such cars might increase the confidence of automobile manufacturers that a market for such new technology products could be developed, thus making them more commercially viable." [bold's mine]

Well, there are full electric vehicles already available: Phoenix Motorcars's...


Disclaimer: I owe shares of Altair Nanotechnologies, which has struck a deal to get 16.6% of Phoenix Motorcars.

STX. Another breakout with big volume.

Seagate Technology (STX)

Another breakout with big volume after two months base. It can be followed by a pull back near the old resistance, but we recall you that the last pattern similar to this one, presented by us in 08.01.2007 (16 days) gives a return of 27% from 6.71 usd to 8.52 usd.

Enter long if you have favourable intraday evidence, but in the markets you are always under uncertainty, so put a stop near 27, the zone of the two months resistence.

The price/book number for this one is 2.93. There is "space" for a move.

Trends

President Bush is not in good shape. Even tough, Dems will give him enough space to survive, until Ms. Clinton or Mr. Mccain will arrive!

For us, investors, the speech of yesterday gave us some clues to follow:

• Ethanol producers and health care service providers are among the potential corporate beneficiaries of policies proposed by President Bush, while domestic automakers and oil companies could get slightly stung.

Our main conclusions are:

1. If the bet is to produce ethanol, it is because oil will be a rare energy.....
2. If oil barrels will be fewer, oil barrel will be expensive.
3. Ethanol is not viable, in economic terms, at a level of 60 dollars a barrel of oil, which means....

Next weeks

We are witnessing some uncomfortable investor behavior caused by:

• Unthinkable globalisation moves: the real power of China is coming (do not forget the fact, that China is the second investor in US treasury bills).
• The Middle East horizon: Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, etc.
• The unstoppable blood bath in Baghdad.
• The environmental challenge: will oil be replaced? Is it a real threat the hot weather? Or is it a new media campaign?

All these questions are on the table. Investors do not like doubts or questions.

Nevertheless, economic indicators are not bad: The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday its Index of Leading Economic Indicators edged up 0.3 percent last month. Even tough, data are not good!

The kidnapping of confidence

Markets suspended and kidnapped by the price of oil and its masters. If the price of oil declines, there is some confidence, but if the price goes up markets depreciate more than the price increase.

Air transportation: a new step

Lockeed Martin and Boeing are trying to get married:

• Lockheed Martin and Boeing Form Strategic Alliance to Promote Next-Generation Air Transportation System.

In a global world, some sector demands to much money to support profitable lines of business. Even with the support of the Pentagon, Boeing and Lockeed, are not well, to run its business autonomous.

Judy Marks, President of Lockeed Martin expressed its view: "To help increase the capacity of our National Airspace System by three fold over the next two decades, industry needs to look from the ground to the sky for innovation".

Sometimes, a higher level of concentration does not bring competition and performance.

Are US markets in a dead-end?

If we look to the last 5 years pattern, we prefer the Dow picture, than the Nasdaq.

Simple arithmetic’s:

• Nasdaq: +100% return, from 2002.
• Dow: +50% return, from 2002.

The bulls are definitely in the traditional stocks, and the dogs are biting the tech sector. And this thought is much clearer if you compare the tech stocks return with some emerging markets return, like Russia stocks, China stocks and India stocks, for the last 3 to 5 years.

Are US investors putting their money outside US?

Intel: the challenge

The figure is not so good! One of the major icons of the XX century is lagging during last 5 years. What about the Wintel Kingdom? What will say Andy Grove about this kind of behavior?

Intel will need to revamp the business, or to die in the next technological revolution. Actual situation is not sustainable.

Ford: again?

Look, to the this Table? Looks good. Good increase, with a lower volume level.

But, will Alan Mulally have a good answer to this question:

• Is it the Ford that can create some of the most remarkable and value-laden products in its history, such as the current generation of F-Series trucks, the Fusion, the new Explorer, or the Mustang? Or is it the Ford that brings out the 500 sedan, the indescribably strange Freestyle, and a new minivan that was $5,000 pricier than the benchmark Honda Odyssey?

Oil political moves

After the high level from mid 2006, right now we are witnessing the fall:

• U.S. light crude for February delivery tumbled $2.24 to $50.75 a barrel after touching $50.93, the lowest since May 2005, in earlier New York Mercantile Exchange trading. In London, Brent futures shed 82 cents to $52.30.

We are close to a level of oil price, to support an economy rebound. Or is it this oil price level a prediction of an economic downturn?

Why Gold Stocks?

1. Weak dollar
Experts are saying that US dollar will lose further ground in the face of the reducing growth and interest rate differential.

2. Threat of terrorism attacks
Terrorisms experts are saying it’s just a matter of when, not if, the US will be struck again.

3. Iran conflict
There is a speculation that Bush Administration has chosen Iran as its next target.

Innovation

We all see business as a commodity idea. We need to be more contrarian minded. Read this:

• Just four to five years ago, entrepreneurs were shunning the corner store option in favor of launching their business venture in the more lucrative e-commerce arena.
• Now the trend has shifted to multi-channel retailing where new businesses want a store presence, they want to be on the Internet and also sell through catalogs.

And look to some new (and old) ideas:

• an Atlanta-based company called Teavana is betting that it can carve a niche for itself - a la Starbucks - for tea drinkers. Teavana operates more than 50 mall-based tea bars/ tea emporiums nationwide.
• MetroPark carries a variety of trendy apparel and accessories brands such as True Religion, Le Sportsac and Harajuku Lovers. It's stores also feature DJs, adding to the club-like atmosphere.
• Room & Board, which sells stylish contemporary furniture in the mid to high-end price range. Their furniture would appeal to first-time home buyers or people moving into city apartments. They have a non-commission selling staff and their overall customer service is very good.

In old ideas, you can find innovative ways to make money.

We are confident that the Nasdaq will move higher.

NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) it´s a fund designed to correspond generally to the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index. We can use that fund, for example, for measure the intraday market performance.

Here we present the 5 minute chart since the begining of the year.Today we assist to a breakout of a very significant triangular formation, so we can expect that the Nasdaq will soon achive new highs and we can expect the continuation of a uptrend. Off course a natural correction can occour, in particular near the old resistance (+- 44). Now the old resistance tends to become new support.

We only need to reformulate our forecast of the Nasdaq behaviour in the next weeks, if we have a strong breakdown of the 44 suport. In our opinion, given the technical pattern, this scenario can occour with small probability.

So, we are confident that the Nasdaq will move higher, immediatly or after a small pull back.

We also recall that since close prices of last week (05.01.2007), our recomendations for this week give the following returns in 3 days:

MOT 4.3%

NWK 12,37%

We hope that next weekend (or Monday morning) we issue similar recommendations.

We wish you good investments and that our ideas will help you.

Oil: after the boom

In last 5 days, the oil and gas industry index loosed 5%. Think about 5% of Chevron, Exxon or Shell. It is too much.

We think oil will continue to be the major energy in next decades, no matter the global warm will attack ourselves. Some of the mentioned behemoth will benefit from other new energies, even if they need to buy new energy companies.

Altair's agreement with Phoenix Motorcars

Altair Nanotechnologies (NASDAQ: ALTI) has disclosed its agreement with Phoenix Motorcars.

"Altair Nanotechnologies Inc. (Nasdaq: ALTI) announced today it received a purchase order for its NanoSafe™ 35 KWh battery pack systems from California-based Phoenix Motorcars for $1,040,000 for battery pack systems scheduled for delivery in February and March 2007. In addition, the company announced it has entered into a multi-year purchase and supply agreement with Phoenix under which Phoenix has projected orders for 2007 between $16 and $42 Million for up to five hundred battery pack systems.
The initial order of battery pack systems, valued at $1,040,000, is scheduled for delivery to Phoenix in February and March 2007, and additional shipments of increasing value are planned throughout the 2007 calendar year. (...)
In consideration for a three-year exclusivity agreement within the U.S., Altairnano received a 16.6 percent ownership in the company. The three-year exclusivity agreement provides Phoenix with limited, exclusive use of Altairnano's NanoSafe battery packs in four-wheel, all-electric vehicles having a gross weight up to 6,000 pounds. Phoenix must meet minimum battery pack purchases, annually, to maintain the limited exclusivity agreement. The minimum commitment to maintain exclusivity for 2007 would provide $16 million in battery pack sales to Altairnano. Altairnano's NanoSafe battery packs manufactured for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs) are excluded from the exclusivity agreement.
Altairnano's NanoSafe 35 KWh battery pack systems enable Phoenix SUTs (...) providing power for a driving range of 135 miles and driving speeds of up to 100 miles per hour. The NanoSafe battery pack can be recharged in less than 10 minutes at fast-charge stations."

Over this announcement, WR Hambrecht has issued yesterday a favorable analysis stating:

"We believe this order puts Altair on the road to profitability in 2007. We feel it also substantiates our theory that Altair has a winning battery and that it can bring in significant revenue this year. We are raising our 2007 estimates from a loss of ($0.08) on revenue of $18.8 million to a profit of $0.08 on sales of $32.9 million. We reiterate our BUY rating and $5.50 price target based on 2008 estimates.
(...) The long awaited order from Phoenix Motorcars has come through. We had been estimating that the order would be for around $15 million, but had become concerned about Phoenix's funding. It seems Phoenix has secured some funding, and we understand more is coming."

So, now Altair has gained 16,6% of Phoenix Motorcars, an auto maker, gets an amount of at least $16 million and will probably reach profitability in 2007. Even better than this is expected to be the agreement with Alcoa for the hybrid and plug-in vehicles (which are out of the exclusivity with Phoenix Motorcars) - and other partnerships with auto makers.


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies.

The new Jobs revolution

Take it: iPhone + iTV.

Steve Jobs, the cyberbusinessman just announced to the world:

Jobs announces two versions of the iPhone: a $499 model with 4GB and a $599 model for an 8G model (a two-year agreement is required). The iPhone will be available in June; overseas in 2008.

And this:

Apple's new TV product, codenamed "iTV", will simply be called ... "Apple TV". Apple TV does 720p HD video, and has an Intel processor plus a 40GB hard drive which stores 50 hours of video. The new system will play shows from iTunes. Shows and movies will be automatically synched from a Mac or a PC to Apple TV's hard drive, or streamed from up to 5 computers. Apple has long hosted trailers on its website to show off its video software. But now they can stream right to Apple TV and play. Apple TV ships in February for $299, Apple taking orders today.

Boston II

The trend of Boston Scientific is good: up, with good volume, away from huge volume. More than 20% gain in three months. Sustainable.

MOT. A good reason to choose a short position?

In our opinion in the next months the price of Motorola (MOT) stock will be in some trouble. In the chart we see clear evidence of the breakdown of six month low suport. Looking for a short position we need to be carefull because the price will tend to fill the gap, but if we manage well that risk , for example, waiting for a light volume rally before resuming the downtrend, we can have a good oportunity to win with a fall in the price. Again, we can be more agressive and enter short as soon as we have intraday evidence for doing that.

NWK. A breakout with big volume.

We have an excellent setup with NWK, a breakout with big volume after two months base.

In some markets a breakout is followed by a light volume pull back likely to return the price near the breakout level, i.e., the old resistance tends to become new support. Because of that, if we want a prudent strategy we can wait for a pull back near the old resistance. If we want to be more agressive and if there is favourable intraday evidence you can enter long as soon as possible.

The square box is a sign that the move was already encountering some resistance, so we recommend to wait and see if it pull back some before continue in a good move higher. Off course a logical stop loss is under the old resistance, near 6.2 usd.

Also chek the price/book number 1.79 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NWK) There is "space" for a big move.

GM's Volt

"GM goes electric with concept car" got the news today at Reuters and MSNBC.

We read further and see that GM's (NYSE: GM) Volt proposition will be and autonomy of 40 miles and the possibility of recharge included in the vehicle, that will provide a combustion engine solely for that purpose. The battery technology is said to be lithium-ion.

Which will be the suppliers of the batteries, the critical part of this hybrid vehicle? Reuters explains:

"GM awarded lithium-ion battery development contracts for its Saturn Vue Green Line hybrid to Johnson Controls Inc. affiliate Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions and Cobasys, a venture of Chevron Corp. and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. . Cobasys will work with privately held A123Systems to develop the technology."

When?

"Lauckner said the Volt should be ready for production around the same time the lithium-ion batteries will be, which GM expects to be in two to three years."

So, now we know that GM has made the announced move and chose, ADVFN tell us, Johnson Controls (Nyse: JCI) and ultimately A123Systems technology and the batteries will be provided in "two to three years".

Now, another question: who's with Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and Altair Nanotechnologies (NASDAQ: ALTI)? Altair has already announced a complete product...


Disclaimer: I own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies.

Hydrogen's four major hurdles

Popular Mechanics and "The Truth about Hydrogen". A must read.

Jeff Wise identifies and analyses four major hurdles that the technology of hydrogen energy faces: production, storage, distribution and use. It will not be easy to put it in practice.

Boston

Look to this trend, from Boston Scientific? After the storm....

Learn to wait

We will foresee a fine 2007 for stocks. But, things are grey, for the moment. Look:

• copper, which has tumbled 36 percent since reaching a high in May.
• Copper futures for March delivery were at $2.60 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would mark a weekly loss of 9.4 percent, the most since July 21.
• Crude oil was also poised for its steepest weekly decline in New York since April 2005, as warm U.S. weather reduced heating demand. Crude oil for February delivery last traded at $55.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has fallen 9.6 percent this week.
• Commodity stocks are the most exposed to signs of an economic slowdown.

We are experiencing a typical slowdown. Wait a little bit, and the markets will comeback. Unless, The Congress and The White House will come to a battle....

Ford: again

We are the ones, that love people that admit to learn with others. This is about some speculation in markets, last month, concerning a possible connection between Ford and Toyota. Alan Mulally, CEO of Ford, had been in Tokyo, last month, and now he says: he deeply admires the Japanese automaker for its manufacturing processes and product development strategy.

It is remarkable that a person who is the top responsible of a brand saying this about a competitor: Mulally called Toyota "the finest machine in the world, the finest production system in the world. So we went to study with the master. I really wanted to connect with each of the manufacturers in the industry and to do it quickly".

Probably, some Americans, does not like this approach. In our opinion, it is the best approach: to be a learner, instead of a blind and an arrogant person.

“Hot” winter “cold” natural gas stocks

Warmer-than-normal U.S. temperatures are taking down the natural gas stocks prices. The average high for this time of year is in the low 40s, yet the next few days will feature highs in the upper 50s and 60s.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation is getting cold. Today, Goldman Sachs downgrade CHK to Neutral from Buy based on less credit for unbooked resource profit and drilling rig ownership. Also noted that company closed out some hedges in mid-December and has greater risk exposure. Price target cut to $35 from $40.

Take a look at the 10-intraday price:

Source: msn Money

Now, look at the 2 year CHK chart:

Source: msn Money

The stock price is going to its 2 years resistance (27 dollars).

Should Chesapeake have enough gas to get up again?

Nardelli: OUT

It is always bad to be fired! But, when you get 210 million dollars to come home, like Robert Nardelli, probably you think twice....and accept it.

Nardelli, an ex-GE Top Executive, accepted the top spot from Home Depot, after loosing the main spot to Immelt at GE. Nevertheless, Nardelli made some achievements:

• Nardelli has run Home Depot pretty efficiently for a majority of his six years.
• Home Depot's earnings-per-share [EPS] have increased 20 percent a year for the past four years.
• Nardelli brought discipline.

But:

• "no flexibility" and "autonomous" management style that came to characterize Nardelli's reign.
• The company needs a more innovative and constructive leadership.

Frank Blake is the new CEO. Shares of Home Depot are up, today.

Restart

The markets will reopen January, 3rd, with these items in mind:

• MBA Purchase Applications.
• ICSC-UBS Store Sales.
• National Employment Report.
• Redbook.
• ISM Mfg Index.
• Construction Spending.
• FOMC Minutes.
• Motor Vehicle Sales.

In our opinion, next weeks will be good and tough, because of two main issues:

• The GWB decision on Iraq.
• The next marriage between GWB and The Dems.

But, the fundamentals of the economy are good.

New Year: more deals

In 2006, we have seen basically two major issues:

• The merger mania: Arcelor bought by Mittal; pendent acquisition of Corus by Tata or by CSN (Brasil); Euronext bought by NYSE; BAA bought by Ferrovial (Spain); pendent acquisition of Scania by MAN; pendent acquisition of London Stock Exchange by NASDAQ; etc.
• The definitive assumption of private equity investors, like Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Texas Pacific, Permira, or Blackstone.

In other aspects, we have witnessed to this:

1. an unprecedented rise in hostility. Never before have so many institutions and investors been prepared to go hostile in pursuit of their targets.
2. 2006 worldwide M&A activity reached a record $3,760 billion compared with $3,400 billion in 2000.
3. Most venture capitalists and major banks such as Goldman Sachs once avoided hostile bids, wanting managements’ approval for any offer they made. Not any more. With billions raised in takeover funds and their rivals all pursuing the same deals, they can no longer afford to be so scrupulous.
4. “For better or worse it’s one of the business practices that the US seems to have exported,” said Pierce (MORTON PIERCE has chaired the M and A group at the New York law firm of Dewey Ballantine since 1991).

The globalisation and the venture capital will help to increase this trend.