Big volume

Credit crunch are not solved, even tough, this is a huge volume for the Nasdaq in August. Pay attention to some volatility.

S&P 500

200 points in the major index, in one single year, it is too much. Meaning roughly +15% return on investment. Too good to be true!

We think stock market will always be the best way to make money, nevertheless it is impossible to grow so quickly in one year, especially in a economy giving some clues of a slower pace.

Let's go to a sector analysis, because the ETF type of investment, based on S&P, or even in the Nasdaq, will be more volatile.

Nasdaq: these days

When big investors head for the exits, the party's over for the smaller ones. One way to spot that trend is to pay close attention to distribution days--days when the market is down more than 0.2% on higher volume than the previous session.

We know things could be bad, if big guys will get out of stocks. If we look to the two figures, we don't see any similar pattern. Nevertheless, Nasdaq Composite is in a stagnation situation since November 2006, without decreasing volume. Is the emerging markets volume explaining everything?

Are US markets in a dead-end?

If we look to the last 5 years pattern, we prefer the Dow picture, than the Nasdaq.

Simple arithmetic’s:

• Nasdaq: +100% return, from 2002.
• Dow: +50% return, from 2002.

The bulls are definitely in the traditional stocks, and the dogs are biting the tech sector. And this thought is much clearer if you compare the tech stocks return with some emerging markets return, like Russia stocks, China stocks and India stocks, for the last 3 to 5 years.

Are US investors putting their money outside US?