Recession?

Think of this:

• Fed Rate: 5,25%.
• ECB: 4,0%. Near a new increase.
• Month after month, new starts in homebuilding decrease.
• Mortgages and foreclosures, rising.
• Investor confidence in Germany, at the lower level from the last 8 months.
• Nikkei performs poor, even with a 0,5% rate of BOJ.
• Volatility is high.
• Bank stocks are decreasing everywhere.
• Commercial paper reduced dramatically.
• What else do you need for a..............

Going deep....

IMF is telling us: The global economy should turn in an energetic performance this year, even though its biggest player, the United States, is expected to experience its weakest growth in five years.

This is wishful thinking! The real estate and mortgages issue in US, will spread in a major way. Even the IMF will assume that risk: Although there have been some "tentative signs of stabilization" in the troubled housing sector, the "housing correction still has a way to run," the IMF said. "A turnaround in residential construction is still several quarters away."

In a scenario like this, IMF speaks in a world economy growing at 4.9%. This is bullshit! Especially, if we look to the main driver's growth:

• The U. S. economy is expected to grow by 2.2 percent this year.
• In Europe, the IMF is projecting Germany to expand by 1.8 percent this year, an improvement from a previous projection of 1.3 percent growth.
• Britain should see economic growth of 2.9 percent this year.
• Japan, meanwhile, continues to recover from a decade-long stagnation. It is expected to post economic growth of 2.3 percent this year.

The emerging markets are doing well, but their weight is not so big in the world economy:

• China, is expected to log blistering growth of 10 percent this year.
• Russia is expected to see economic activity increase by 6.4 percent this year.
• India, which grew by 9.2 percent last year, will moderate to 8.4 percent this year.

How could it be possible, to grow 4.9% in 2007?