Are we near a new war?

In an economy, there are some sectors that benefits from war, like: equipment manufacturers, from planes to boots, from food to fuel!

Iranian - British fight because of waters, it is reminding us about some old memories:

• The kidnapping in mid-March of 15 British sailors, and the parading of them on Iranian television, was first played down by the British government, in an effort to encourage Iran to set them free without losing face. Now the situation is beginning to look more like the American-hostage incident in 1979, when over 60 Americans were held in their diplomatic mission in Tehran, Iran’s capital, by Islamic extremists.

We are near a possible war, after this remark: President George W. Bush said Iran's seizure of 15 British sailors and marines in the Persian Gulf is ``inexcusable'' and the U.S. stands behind the U.K. government in its attempts to resolve the standoff.

Stocks to watch, especially in a bear market: Lockeed-Martin, Boeing, Northrop, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and gold!

But, we will continue to watch internet stocks and healthcare business.

Oil: after the boom

In last 5 days, the oil and gas industry index loosed 5%. Think about 5% of Chevron, Exxon or Shell. It is too much.

We think oil will continue to be the major energy in next decades, no matter the global warm will attack ourselves. Some of the mentioned behemoth will benefit from other new energies, even if they need to buy new energy companies.

And the winner is....

The oil still is in command. We ear about new energies, from air, from sea, from lithium batteries, but oil still is the most affordable and reliable commodity, in energy field.

We are, among a crowded legion of people, believers in a kind of quest for oil, in a typical Hollywood contest, all over the world. We only see news from certain countries, because of oil or natural gas, like Angola, Nigeria, Turkmenistan, Dubai or Brunei.

We read this: "I like energy and materials because emerging economies like China and India just have such demand to grow, and they need materials and energy to do it,".

Even, if US will stay in sidelines, in 2007, believe that this kind of news, will only help energy sector stocks:

• At least 200 people died today in a large fire after a burst fuel pipeline exploded in Nigeria's largest city, Lagos.

Of course, if you buy Total, Exxon-Mobil or BP, probably you will not have a huge return, but you have probably a safe and nice return.

Energy: a bounce back

Yesterday, the "major oil and gas index" have increased 1,52%. OPEC is trying to reduce production. New energies are not yet available. Exxon-Mobil says that oil will continue to be the major energy, even 20 years from now.

Look to: Conoco-Phillips, Petrochina (where Buffett has a stake), Total and ENI.

Like it or not, we will continue to need oil!

A new light for oil

Big oil company ExxonMobil is betting on oil, again:

• ExxonMobil delivered its annual long term energy forecast Tuesday, saying that it expects the world will use 60% more energy in 2030 than in did in 2000.
• But despite this spike in demand, the oil giant does not expect to see any increase in the use of renewable energy sources from 2006 levels.

Is it a big trap, the investments in renewable energy? Or is it, like a fashion?

We believe in a much more non-oil dependent economy. We will see it.